The GBPUSD pair or the so called “cable” is a difficult pair to be traded as many times it seems like it is living in its own world.
Trading GBPUSD on the Forex Market
However, it is highly traded as it represents two of 7 of the biggest economies in the world, so what is happening in UK and US should be tracked.
It has somehow a bigger spread than the EURUSD and this makes it unappealing for scalping or for automated trading on the short to very short term. However, it is extremely popular as it is moving more than the other pairs and as a consequence has a bigger average true range.
The most important things to keep in mind when trading CFDs or binary options based on the GBPUSD are the following:
- try to avoid the Asian session as the pair is moving mainly in the European and US session;
- look for the pair to react when Retail Sales and GDP in UK are announced as it moves more on these news than other currencies are doing;
- when GDP is announced in UK look for the preliminary release as market is barely moving when the second estimate is announced;
- look on the economic calendar for the dates when central banks are setting the interest rates as Bank of England is meeting on a monthly basis whereas Federal Reserve in the United States is meeting every 6 weeks. Currencies are moving based on the interest rate decisions and monetary policies of main central banks.
Important Economic Releases to Watch in the UK
United Kingdom is one of the most important economies in the world and the currency, the Great Britain Pound, is influenced when economic news are being released. Even though the UK is a member of the European Union, it is worth mentioning that it is not having the Euro as a currency, so it is not part of the Eurozone.
Bank Of England is the central bank and the mandate is to keep inflation around two percent. In order to address that mandate, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is meeting on a monthly basis to assess the economy.
The MPC meeting is not followed by a press conference like it is the case of the ECB (European Central Bank) unless the interest rate is being changed.
The GBP is strongly influenced when the GDP is being released (Gross Domestic Product) and the preliminary release is the most important one as the final one is rarely being different. Besides GDP, Retail Sales and PMI’s (Purchasing Manager Index) have the power to move markets as well as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) or inflation. In fact, inflation is on the top priorities list Bank of England has and when the Inflation Letter is being released markets are moving quite aggressively.
It is worth mentioning that PMIs are split in the service, construction and manufacturing sectors.
Important Economic Releases to Watch In the United States
When it comes to United States, we must start with the fact that this is the biggest economy in the world and it goes without saying that a lot of important economic news are being released each and every month.
Because the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, is having a dual mandate, it is obvious that jobs data (Non-Farm Payrolls) and inflation (CPI) are the ones that really matter. However, there are some other pieces of economic releases that influence markets, as follows: ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing (these are the equivalent of Europe’s PMI’s mentioned a bit earlier, Retail Sales (released on a monthly basis), GDP (release on a quarterly basis), PPI (Producer Price Index), ADP (private payrolls), Durable Goods Orders, etc.
What to Expect from Economic Releases
Expect the GBPUSD to really move when NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) in the United States and Claimant Count in UK are released as job growth is a key data central banks consider. Also the PMI and ISM are showing expansionary or contractionary conditions for services, manufacturing and construction sectors and this translates in market trying to form an opinion regarding what is going to happen next time when the central bank is meeting.
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting every six weeks and forward guidance and economic projections are being published as well as a press conference every 2-3 meetings. During these events, the US dollar is moving sharply and as a consequence all US dollar related currency pairs are moving as well, GBPUSD included.
More details about how to trade this currency pair are to be found out by watching the two recordings above as we’ll discuss the economic calendar in more details and how to compare two economies when it comes taking a trading decision.